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20121202
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security is, any of the retirement or tax issues, but i'll tell you this. i think that all these stories aren't necessarily going lead us to the truth. i personally have a very size way i'm approaching this. the president is supposed to leave for a 21-day vacation in hawaii on december 17th. where he is on december 18th will tell me, and i think the markets will pay attention. i find it hard to believe, and i agree with bill and many, who are very not amused by the house taking their long weekend. i'm sure that the president would have no intentions of leaving until these issues are resolved. i think the market is being kind, but i think it's a timing issue. >> yeah, i think that's a good point. somebody mentioned the other day that the president is planning a trip to hawaii on december 17th. i said, what? they said, no, no, no, not unless the deal is done. we'll see about that. meanwhile, the house goes away for a lock weekend. all right, rob. what do you think? you think we're going to get a deal done by the year end? >> i think there will probably be a deal done. i think you have to l
to go over the fiscal cliff. there will be some sort of resolution. they'll come up with some tax cuts, some breaks in spending, and probably kick the can down the road on a lot of it. i love the way this market is acting. it's not selling off with all the bad news, all the bickering, all the bad words on each side. you've got to love the way that this market is holding up here. doesn't mean investors need to be carefree, but overall, it looks like the market is setting up with a lot of negative sentiment out there. looks like there's a lot of opportunity for a big run higher once we get some form of resolution. i really believe we're going to get it. >> you think by year end? >> i really do. i think they want to go home for christmas. they're not going to want to not go home for christmas. you can always count on politicians to do the right thing when all other options have been exploited. they're going to finally get there because they have to. they're not going to solve 100% of it right away. >> jump in, abbigail. >> i think it's too early to be bearish or bullish, for that matter.
gains tax or dividend tax as opposed to much higher because we know that taxes will probably go higher in 2013. oracle is accelerating payments of 2013 dif dens. they're going to pay second quarter, third quarter and fourth quarter dividends this month. gordon, what has that done to trading and investing environment? all these special dividends. oracle is doing it now, second quarter, third quarter dividends this month so investors can get taxed at the 2012 dividend rate. >> it's bigger than that because it's not only the corporation themselves but corporate executives. cashing out options looking for preferential tax treatment there as well. that's just prudent corporate management. you can't fault them. stocks paying special dividends have been outperforming the spx in the time period since this started happening. in some ways in the convoluted way it's been a positive for the market. >> oracle is down, though o this news. >> oracle is down right now. gordon, you make a really good point. that's where the performance has been, the conditions paying these special dividends. when i see
. >> that's funny. art, you wrote today about what we're seeing in terms of tax changes and withholding. talk to us about that. >> the fiscal cliff, one of the things if we're really going to go over it and change the tax basis, the treasury has to call on corporate america to change the withholding tables. all of us get taxes withheld. if they're going to change what rate i'm going to be taxed at, they're going to have to change that table. that's not an overnight process. certainly, the treasury can't afford to let that go too long because everybody will be underwithheld. they'll get a big tax bill. there will be a riot among the people if that happens. what i'm watching is the treasury. if they get nervous enough, they'll ask them to change the tax tables. so far it looks like they smell a deal and haven't asked for it yet. you think we're going to get a deal? >> i think they may try to push it to the end. the other thing i'm watching for is the 17th when the president is due to take his family to hawaii. i don't think he wants to be in hawaii without a deal. something is going to co
're doing in washington on tax and regulatory policy. in the near term, the fiscal cliff prevails. in the longer term, the fed will prevail. there's so much mistrust on stocks that i think that still can be a positive catalyst for stocks relative to traditional bonds over the next 12 months. >> i'm going to push back a little bit on that. >> i'm going to break the tie in ralph's favor. >> david, i want to push back a little bit on that. in terms of -- like, is the fed really that much of a factor these days now in terms of keeping the market afloat? >> absolutely. >> it's not losing its bang for its buck? >> it's not as powerful as it was in the fall of 2008 or even 2010, but when you consider that, u.s., long bonds, 1.5%. short-term interest rates, zero. negative on an inflation adjusted basis. the cost of capital is so low. i firmly believe in my lifetime this is the most aggressive fed easing we'll see in the last 5i years. that's what's so powerful. >> i think he just hit the ball into your court. >> i don't know how to say it anymore than that. >> i don't know how much more i
Search Results 0 to 4 of about 5

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